Suchergebnis: Katalogdaten im Herbstsemester 2017

Umweltnaturwissenschaften Master Information
Vertiefung in Umweltsysteme und Politikanalyse
Modellierung und statistische Datenanalyse
NummerTitelTypECTSUmfangDozierende
701-1453-00LEcological Assessment and Evaluation Information W3 KP3GF. Knaus
KurzbeschreibungThe course provides methods and tools for ecological evaluations dealing with nature conservation or landscape planning. It covers census methods, ecological criteria, indicators, indices and critically appraises objectivity and accuracy of the available methods, tools and procedures. Birds and plants are used as main example guiding through different case studies.
LernzielStudents will be able to:
1) critically consider biological data books and local, regional, and national inventories;
2) evaluate the validity of ecological criteria used in decision making processes;
3) critically appraise the handling of ecological data and criteria used in the process of evaluation
4) perform an ecological evaluation project from the field survey up to the descision making and planning.
SkriptPowerpoint slides are available on the webpage. Additional documents are handed out as copies.
LiteraturBasic literature and references are listed on the webpage.
Voraussetzungen / BesonderesThe course structure changes between lecture parts, seminars and discussions. The didactic atmosphere is intended as working group.

Prerequisites for attending this course are skills and knowledge equivalent to those taught in the following ETH courses:
- Pflanzen- und Vegetationsökologie
- Systematische Botanik
- Raum- und Regionalentwicklung
- Naturschutz und Naturschutzbiologie
701-1541-00LMultivariate Methods
Studierenden der Umweltnaturwissenschaften mit der Vertiefung Umweltsysteme und Politikanalyse wird sehr empfohlen entweder die Lehrveranstaltung 701-1541-00 im Herbstsemester ODER 752-2110-00 im Frühjahrssemester zu belegen.
W3 KP2V + 1UR. Hansmann
KurzbeschreibungDie Veranstaltung behandelt multivariate statistische Methoden wie lineare Regression, Varianzanalyse, Clusteranalyse, Faktorenanalyse und logistische Regression.
LernzielErlernen
(1) von Grundlagen und Anwendungsbedingungen unterschiedlicher multivariater Methoden,
(2) der Schätzung, Spezifikation und Diagnostik von Modellen,
(3) der Anwendung der Methoden mittels geeigneter Software anhand von Datensätzen im PC-Labor.
InhaltDie Veranstaltung beginnt mit einer Einführung in multivariate Methoden wie Varianzanalyse und multiple lineare Regression, bei denen eine metrische abhängige Variable durch mehrere unabhängige Variablen "erklärt" wird. Es folgen die zwei strukturierenden Verfahren Clusteranalyse und Faktorenanalyse. Im letzten Teil werden Verfahren zur Untersuchung von Zusammenhängen mit dichotomen oder polytomen abhängigen Variablen (z.B. die Wahl von Verkehrsmitteln) vorgestellt.
LiteraturWird zu Veranstaltungsbeginn bekannt gegeben.
101-0491-00LAgent Based Modeling in TransportationW3 KP2GM. Balac, T. J. P. Dubernet
KurzbeschreibungThe main topics of the lecture are:
1) Introduction to the agent-based paradigm and overview on existing agent-based models in transportation, including MATSim
2) Learn how to setup MATSim for policy analysis
3) Learn how to extend the software (includes Java programming)
4) Create, run and analyse a policy study
LernzielThe objective of this course is to make the students familiar with agent-based models and in particular with the software MATSim. They will learn the pros and cons of this type of approach versus traditional transport models and will learn to use the simulation. They will design a policy study and run simulations to evaluate the impacts of the proposed policies.
InhaltThe main topics are:
1) Introduction to the agent-based paradigm and overview on existing agent-based models in transportation, including MATSim
2) Introduction of basic modeling concepts (activity-based approach, user equilibrium...)
3) Learn how to setup MATSim for policy analysis
4) Learn how to extend the software (includes Java programming)
5) Create, run and analyse a policy study
LiteraturAgent-based modeling in general
Helbing, D (2012) Social Self-Organization, Understanding Complex Systems, Springer, Berlin.
Heppenstall, A., A. T. Crooks, L. M. See and M. Batty (2012) Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, Springer, Dordrecht.

MATSim

Horni, A., K. Nagel and K.W. Axhausen (eds.) (2016) The Multi-Agent Transport Simulation MATSim, Ubiquity, London
(http://www.matsim.org/the-book)

Additional relevant readings, mostly scientific articles, will be recommended throughout the course.
Voraussetzungen / BesonderesThere are no strict preconditions in terms of which lectures the students should have previously attended. However, it is expected that the students have some experience with some high level programming language (i.e. C, C++, Fortran or Java). If this is not the case, attending the additional java exercises (101-0491-00U) is strongly encouraged.
363-0541-00LSystems Dynamics and ComplexityW3 KP3GF. Schweitzer, G. Casiraghi, V. Nanumyan
KurzbeschreibungFinding solutions: what is complexity, problem solving cycle.

Implementing solutions: project management, critical path method, quality control feedback loop.

Controlling solutions: Vensim software, feedback cycles, control parameters, instabilities, chaos, oscillations and cycles, supply and demand, production functions, investment and consumption
LernzielA successful participant of the course is able to:
- understand why most real problems are not simple, but require solution methods that go beyond algorithmic and mathematical approaches
- apply the problem solving cycle as a systematic approach to identify problems and their solutions
- calculate project schedules according to the critical path method
- setup and run systems dynamics models by means of the Vensim software
- identify feedback cycles and reasons for unintended systems behavior
- analyse the stability of nonlinear dynamical systems and apply this to macroeconomic dynamics
InhaltWhy are problems not simple? Why do some systems behave in an unintended way? How can we model and control their dynamics? The course provides answers to these questions by using a broad range of methods encompassing systems oriented management, classical systems dynamics, nonlinear dynamics and macroeconomic modeling.
The course is structured along three main tasks:
1. Finding solutions
2. Implementing solutions
3. Controlling solutions

PART 1 introduces complexity as a system immanent property that cannot be simplified. It introduces the problem solving cycle, used in systems oriented management, as an approach to structure problems and to find solutions.

PART 2 discusses selected problems of project management when implementing solutions. Methods for identifying the critical path of subtasks in a project and for calculating the allocation of resources are provided. The role of quality control as an additional feedback loop and the consequences of small changes are discussed.

PART 3, by far the largest part of the course, provides more insight into the dynamics of existing systems. Examples come from biology (population dynamics), management (inventory modeling, technology adoption, production systems) and economics (supply and demand, investment and consumption). For systems dynamics models, the software program VENSIM is used to evaluate the dynamics. For economic models analytical approaches, also used in nonlinear dynamics and control theory, are applied. These together provide a systematic understanding of the role of feedback loops and instabilities in the dynamics of systems. Emphasis is on oscillating phenomena, such as business cycles and other life cycles.

Weekly self-study tasks are used to apply the concepts introduced in the lectures and to come to grips with the software program VENSIM.
SkriptThe lecture slides are provided as handouts - including notes and literature sources - to registered students only. All material is to be found on the Moodle platform. More details during the first lecture
Voraussetzungen / BesonderesSelf-study tasks (discussion exercises, Vensim exercises) are provided as home work. Weekly exercise sessions (45 min) are used to discuss selected solutions. Regular participation in the exercises is an efficient way to understand the concepts relevant for the final exam.
860-0002-00LQuantitative Policy Analysis and ModelingO6 KP4GA. Patt, T. Schmidt, E. Trutnevyte, O. van Vliet
KurzbeschreibungThe lectures will introduce students to the principles of quantitative policy analysis, namely the methods to predict and evaluate the social, economic, and environmental effects of alternative strategies to achieve public objectives. A series of graded assignments will give students an opportunity for students to apply those methods to a set of case studies
LernzielThe objectives of this course are to develop the following key skills necessary for policy analysts:
- Identifying the critical quantitative factors that are of importance to policy makers in a range of decision-making situations.
- Developing conceptual models of the types of processes and relationships governing these quantitative factors, including stock-flow dynamics, feedback loops, optimization, sources and effects of uncertainty, and agent coordination problems.
- Develop and program numerical models to simulate the processes and relationships, in order to identify policy problems and the effects of policy interventions.
- Communicate the findings from these simulations and associated analysis in a manner that makes transparent their theoretical foundation, the level and sources of uncertainty, and ultimately their applicability to the policy problem.
The course will proceed through a series of policy analysis and modeling exercises, involving real-world or hypothetical problems. The specific examples around which work will be done will concern the environment, energy, health, and natural hazards management.
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