701-1226-00L  Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

Courses

Catalogue data

Abstract	This course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual weather and climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.
Learning objective	Students will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting weekly to inter-annual variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services.
Content	The course covers the following topics: Part 1: - Introduction, some basic concepts and examples of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability - Weather and climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing weather and climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis) Part 2: - Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) - Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking systems, NAO, PNA, regimes) Part 3: - Prediction of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability (statistical methods, probabilistic ensemble prediction systems, weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts, seamless forecasts) - Verification and interpretation of probabilistic forecast systems - Climate change and inter-annual variability Part 4: - Scientific challenges for operational weather and climate services - A visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss
Lecture notes	A pdf version of the slides will be available at http://www.iac.ethz.ch/edu/courses/master/modules/interannual-phenomena.html
Literature	References are given during the lecture.
Prerequisites / Notice	Permission from lecturers required for students with limited background in atmosphere and climate
Competencies	Subject-specific Competencies Concepts and Theories assessed Techniques and Technologies assessed Method-specific Competencies Analytical Competencies assessed Decision-making fostered Problem-solving assessed Social Competencies Communication assessed Cooperation and Teamwork fostered Customer Orientation assessed Personal Competencies Creative Thinking assessed Critical Thinking assessed Self-direction and Self-management fostered

Performance assessment

Performance assessment information (valid until the course unit is held again)
Performance assessment as a semester course
ECTS credits	2 credits
Examiners	C. Appenzeller
Type	session examination
Language of examination	English
Repetition	The performance assessment is offered every session. Repetition possible without re-enrolling for the course unit.
Mode of examination	oral 30 minutes
Additional information on mode of examination	Submission exercise
This information can be updated until the beginning of the semester; information on the examination timetable is binding.

Learning materials

Groups

Restrictions

Offered in

Programme	Section	Type
Atmospheric and Climate Science Master	Weather Systems and Atmospheric Dynamics	W
Atmospheric and Climate Science Master	Climate Processes and Feedbacks	W
Data Science Master	Interdisciplinary Electives	W
Doctorate Environmental Systems Sciences	Atmosphere and Climate	W
MAS in Sustainable Water Resources	Elective Courses	W
Environmental Sciences Master	Weather Systems and Atmospheric Dynamics	W