701-1226-00L Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction
|jährlich wiederkehrende Veranstaltung
|This course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.
|Students will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting short-term climate variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services.
|The course covers the following topics:
- a brief introduction into short-term climate variability and some basic concepts
- a brief review of climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis)
- inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO)
- inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA, regimes)
- prediction of short-term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction systems. weekly to seasonal forecasts)
- verification methods for probabilistic forecast systems
- challenges for operational weather and climate services
- weather and climate extremes
- early warning systems
- a visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss
|A pdf version of the slides will be available at
|References are given during the lecture.