701-1226-00L  Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

SemesterSpring Semester 2018
LecturersC. Appenzeller
Periodicityyearly recurring course
Language of instructionEnglish


701-1226-00 GInter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction2 hrs
Thu08:15-10:00CHN E 46 »
14.03.08:15-10:00CHN D 42 »
11.04.08:15-10:00CHN E 46 »
C. Appenzeller

Catalogue data

AbstractThis course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.
ObjectiveStudents will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting short-term climate variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services.
ContentThe course covers the following topics:

Part 1:
- a brief introduction into short-term climate variability and some basic concepts
- a brief review of climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis)

Part 2:
- inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO)
- inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA, regimes)

Part 3:
- prediction of short-term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction systems. weekly to seasonal forecasts)
- verification methods for probabilistic forecast systems

Part 4:
- challenges for operational weather and climate services
- weather and climate extremes
- early warning systems
- a visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss
Lecture notesA pdf version of the slides will be available at
LiteratureReferences are given during the lecture.

Performance assessment

Performance assessment information (valid until the course unit is held again)
Performance assessment as a semester course
ECTS credits2 credits
ExaminersC. Appenzeller
Typesession examination
Language of examinationEnglish
RepetitionThe performance assessment is offered every session. Repetition possible without re-enrolling for the course unit.
Mode of examinationoral 30 minutes
This information can be updated until the beginning of the semester; information on the examination timetable is binding.

Learning materials

Main linkSlides, lecture notes and exercises
Only public learning materials are listed.


No information on groups available.


There are no additional restrictions for the registration.

Offered in

Atmospheric and Climate Science MasterWeather Systems and Atmospheric DynamicsWInformation
Data Science MasterInterdisciplinary ElectivesWInformation
Doctoral Department of Environmental SciencesAtmosphere and ClimateWInformation
MAS in Sustainable Water ResourcesElectivesWInformation
Environmental Sciences MasterWeather Systems and Atmospheric DynamicsWInformation
Environmental Sciences MasterClimate Processes and FeedbacksWInformation