David N. Bresch: Katalogdaten im Frühjahrssemester 2023 |
| Name | Herr Prof. Dr. David N. Bresch |
| Namensvarianten | David N. Bresch David Bresch David Niklaus Bresch |
| Lehrgebiet | Wetter- und Klimarisiken |
| Adresse | Professur Wetter- und Klimarisiken ETH Zürich, CHN K 73.2 Universitätstrasse 16 8092 Zürich SWITZERLAND |
| Telefon | +41 44 632 77 87 |
| dbresch@ethz.ch | |
| URL | https://wcr.ethz.ch/ |
| Departement | Umweltsystemwissenschaften |
| Beziehung | Ordentlicher Professor |
| Nummer | Titel | ECTS | Umfang | Dozierende | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 363-1114-00L | Introduction to Risk Modelling and Management | 3 KP | 2V | H. Schernberg, B. J. Bergmann, D. N. Bresch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | This course is a practical, hands-on introduction to various aspects of modelling, dealing with and managing risks across different industries, contexts and applications. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | The course illustrates what is required of the 21st century’s risk manager. It provides a qualitative and quantitative introduction to some of the various risks that societies and businesses face and to their management. The course encourages students to think critically about models and mathematical representations of risks. It identifies and explores the current challenges of managing today’s risks given available technologies. After taking this course, students can formulate a risk analysis problem with quantitative methods in a particular field. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | The course describes the building blocks of risk modelling as well as the process of risk-management. It examines at different approaches to modelling and dealing with as well as mitigating different kind of risks in different industries. The lectures emphasise the decision-making processes in various businesses and how risk-management relates to a company's value chain. Applications range from enterprise risk management, natural catastrophes, climate risk, energy market risk, risk engineering, financial risks, operational risk, cyber risk and more. Note that the programme varies every year. Therefore, all aforementioned topics are not necessarily explored every year. The panel of lecturers comprises risk professionals from various industries and government as well as academics from different disciplines. The course covers the following areas: 1. Fundamentals of Risk Modelling: Probability, Uncertainty, Vulnerability... 2. Fundamentals of Risk Management and Enterprise Risk Management 3. Risk Modelling and Management across Different Areas, with invited speakers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skript | The course materials are provided via Moodle. For each session, slides (and in most cases a video recording) are available. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Literatur | Additional readings will be discussed during the lectures. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | The course is opened to students from all backgrounds. Some experience with quantitative disciplines such as probability and statistics, however, is useful. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kompetenzen |
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| 364-1058-00L | Risk Center Seminar Series | 0 KP | 2S | H. Schernberg, D. Basin, A. Bommier, D. N. Bresch, S. Brusoni, L.‑E. Cederman, P. Cheridito, F. Corman, H. Gersbach, C. Hölscher, K. Paterson, G. Sansavini, B. Stojadinovic, B. Sudret, J. Teichmann, R. Wattenhofer, U. A. Weidmann, S. Wiemer, R. Zenklusen | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | In this series of seminars, invited speakers discuss various topics in the area of risk modelling, governance of complex socio-economic systems, managing risks and crises, and building resilience. Students, PhD students, post-docs, faculty and individuals outside ETH are welcome. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Participants gain insights in a broad range of risk- and resilience-related topics. They expand their knowledge of the field and deepen their understanding of the complexity of our social, economic and engineered systems. For young researchers in particular, the seminars offer an opportunity to learn academic presentation skills and to network with an interdisciplinary scientific audience. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | Academic presentations from ETH faculty as well as external researchers. Each seminar is followed by a Q&A session and (when permitted) a networking Apéro. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skript | The sessions are recorded whenever possible and posted on the ETH Risk Center webpage. If available, presentation slides are shared as well. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Literatur | Each speaker will provide a literature review. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | In most cases, a quantitative background is required. Depending on the topic, field-specific knowledge may be required. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kompetenzen |
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| 651-4095-01L | Colloquium Atmosphere and Climate 1  | 1 KP | 1K | H. Wernli, D. N. Bresch, M. Brunner, N. Gruber, H. Joos, R. Knutti, U. Lohmann, C. Schär, S. Schemm, S. I. Seneviratne, M. Wild | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | The colloquium is a series of scientific talks by prominent invited speakers assembling interested students and researchers from around Zürich. Students take part of the scientific discussions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Get insight into ongoing research in different fields related to atmospheric and climate science | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | The colloquium is a series of scientific talks by prominent invited speakers assembling interested students and researchers from around Zürich. Students take part of the scientific discussions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | To acquire credit points for this colloquium, please confirm your attendance of 8 colloquia per semester by using the form which is provided at the course webpage. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 651-4095-02L | Colloquium Atmosphere and Climate 2 | 1 KP | 1K | H. Wernli, D. N. Bresch, M. Brunner, N. Gruber, H. Joos, R. Knutti, U. Lohmann, C. Schär, S. Schemm, S. I. Seneviratne, M. Wild | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | The colloquium is a series of scientific talks by prominent invited speakers assembling interested students and researchers from around Zürich. Students take part of the scientific discussions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Get insight into ongoing research in different fields related to atmospheric and climate sciences | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | To acquire credit points for this colloquium, please confirm your attendance of 8 colloquia per semester by using the form which is provided at the course webpage. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 651-4095-03L | Colloquium Atmosphere and Climate 3 | 1 KP | 1K | H. Wernli, D. N. Bresch, M. Brunner, N. Gruber, H. Joos, R. Knutti, U. Lohmann, C. Schär, S. Schemm, S. I. Seneviratne, M. Wild | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | The colloquium is a series of scientific talks by prominent invited speakers assembling interested students and researchers from around Zürich. Students take part of the scientific discussions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Get insight into ongoing research in different fields related to atmospheric and climate sciences | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | To acquire credit points for this colloquium, please confirm your attendance of 8 colloquia per semester by using the form which is provided at the course webpage. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 701-0650-00L | Risikoanalyse und -management | 3 KP | 2G | A. Patt, L. Booth, D. N. Bresch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | Dieser Kurs bietet den Studenten eine Einführung in die Prinzipien der quantitativen Risikoanalyse mit Bezug auf verschiedene Anwendungsbereiche, u.a. Wetter und Umwelt, Naturgefahren und toxische Substanzen. Die Teilnehmer des Kurses erhalten ebenfalls eine Übersicht über bereits existierende Praktiken des Risikomanagements, inklusiv Regulierungsansätze, Versicherung und Eventualfallplanung. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | - Kompetenzen in der Anwendung von Methoden der quantitativen Riskoanalyse - Verständnis der gegenwärtigen Ansätze in Richtung Risikomanagement - Verständnis über die Wichtigkeit von Risiken und Unsicherheiten im Entscheidungs- und politischen Prozess - Fähigkeit Risikoinformationen klar und verständlich zu kommunizieren | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | Statistik für die Risikoanalyse; Monte Carlo Simulation; Toxikologie und Epidemiologie; Expositionsabschätzung; Fehlerbaumanalyse; Risiken im Entscheidungsprozess; Risikowahrnehmung und Kommunikation; Streuverlust und Versicherung; Eindämmung von Umweltschäden; Risiko- ond Klimawandelpolitik. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | keine | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kompetenzen |
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| 701-0660-00L | Praktikum Mensch-Umwelt Systeme | 7 KP | 14P | J. W. McCaughey, D. N. Bresch, S. Hanger-Kopp, C. M. Kropf | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | Die Studierenden erarbeiten Forschungsprojekte zum Thema Klimawandelanpassung in welchen sie quantitative und qualitative Methoden zur Datensammlung und Analyse kombinieren und anwenden. Die Studierenden identifizieren politische, ökonomisch, und sozial tragbare Anpassungsmassnahmen und werden so auch die sozialen und ethischen Dimensionen der Klimarisikoanalyse und -anpassung bewerten. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Die Studierenden können ein qualitatives und quantitatives Methodenset anwenden, um eine interdisziplinäre Forschungsfrage an der Schnittstelle von Mensch- und Umweltsystemen zu beantworten. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | Im Kern des Praktikums Mensch-Umwelt Systeme steht die Frage nach der technischen, wirtschaftlichen, und sozialen Mach- und Umsetzbarkeit von Massnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Die Stärkung speziell der Wetter- und Klimaresilienz ist bereits heute von eminenter Bedeutung – und wird in den kommenden Dekaden weiter zunehmen. Das Klima der Vergangenheit stellt aufgrund mannigfacher Veränderungen keine solide Basis für zukunftsgerichtete Entscheidungen mehr dar. Nie zuvor verfügten Gesellschaften über ein so breites Wissen der Prozesse, die ihre Zukunft gestalten und über derart umfassende Daten – inklusive Klimaprojektionen. Doch stehen wir, was die umfassende Nutzung dieser Informationen in Planungs- und Entscheidungsprozessen anbelangt, noch am Anfang. Zentrale Fragen für EntscheidungsträgerInnen und Gesellschaft lauten deshalb: 1) Was ist der mögliche Einfluss von Wetter und Klima heute und in den kommenden Dekaden? 2) Wie können wir mit diesen Chancen/Risiken vorausschauend umgehen, welche Massnahmen bieten sich an? 3) Welche Investitionen sind nötig – überwiegt der Nutzen im Vergleich zu den Kosten? 4) Fallen die Risiken überproportional auf bestimmte Gruppen, insbesondere solche, die möglicherweise bereits benachteiligt sind, und reduzieren die Anpassungsmassnahmen diese Ungleichheit? Zur interdisziplinären Bearbeitung dieser Fragen werden im Praktikum relevante qualitatives und quantitatives Methoden, deren Verknüpfung und kritische Diskussion erlernt. Zu diesen Methoden gehört die Economics of Climade Adaption (ECA, https://wcr.ethz.ch/research/casestudies.html) ein probabilistisches Risikomodell mit offenem Quellcode (CLIMADA, https://wcr.ethz.ch/forschung/climada.html), Multi-Kriterien-Analyse (MCA), und qualitative und quantitative Methoden um sozial gefährdete Gruppen zu identifizieren. Die Studierenden wählen und kombinieren qualitative und quantitative Methoden so, dass sie für ihre Forschungsfragen am besten geeignet sind. Diese Methodik bietet einen Rahmen für die Bewertung des Klimarisikos und die Bewertung von Anpassungsoptionen zusammen mit EntscheidungsträgerInnen und Gesellschaft, insbesodere unter Berücksichtigung diverser möglicher sozioökonomischer Entwicklungspfade und Klimaszenarien. Durch diese Übung und den Vergleich der Szenarien lernen die Studierenden Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkungen kennen, und darüber hinaus gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen in der Modellierung zu berücksichtigen. Die Studierenden reflektieren kritisch die Vor- und Nachteile solcher Einschätzungen, insbesondere in Bezug auf Werte, Ethik und sozialer Gerechtigkeit. Die Studierenden werden den gesamten Prozess in einem professionellen Projektbericht beschreiben und kritisch diskutieren. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Literatur | Literaturangaben werden zu Beginn des Praktikums gegeben. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kompetenzen |
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| 701-1252-00L | Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation | 3 KP | 2V + 1U | D. N. Bresch, R. Knutti | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | The course introduces the concepts of predictability, probability, uncertainty and probabilistic risk modelling and their application to climate modeling and the economics of climate adaptation. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Students will acquire knowledge in uncertainty and risk quantification (probabilistic modelling) and an understanding of the economics of climate adaptation. They will become able to construct their own uncertainty and risk assessment models (in Python), hence basic understanding of scientific programming forms a prerequisite of the course. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inhalt | The first part of the course covers methods to quantify uncertainty in detecting and attributing human influence on climate change and to generate probabilistic climate change projections on global to regional scales. Model evaluation, calibration and structural error are discussed. In the second part, quantification of risks associated with local climate impacts and the economics of different baskets of climate adaptation options are assessed – leading to informed decisions to optimally allocate resources. Such pre-emptive risk management allows evaluating a mix of prevention, preparation, response, recovery, and (financial) risk transfer actions, resulting in an optimal balance of public and private contributions to risk management, aiming at a more resilient society. The course provides an introduction to the following themes: 1) basics of probabilistic modelling and quantification of uncertainty from global climate change to local impacts of extreme events 2) methods to optimize and constrain model parameters using observations 3) risk management from identification (perception) and understanding (assessment, modelling) to actions (prevention, preparation, response, recovery, risk transfer) 4) basics of economic evaluation, economic decision making in the presence of climate risks and pre-emptive risk management to optimally allocate resources | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skript | Powerpoint slides will be made available. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Literatur | Many papers for in-depth study will be referred to during the lecture. For the exercises the CLIMADA platform- https://wcr.ethz.ch/research/climada.html - will be (extensively) used. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | Hands-on experience with probabilistic climate models and risk models will be acquired in the tutorials; hence good understanding of scientific programming forms a prerequisite of the course, in Python (teaching language, object oriented) or similar. Basic understanding of the climate system, e.g. as covered in the course 'Klimasysteme' is required. Examination: graded tutorials during the semester (benotete Semesterleistung) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kompetenzen |
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| 743-0001-00L | CAS in Climate Innovation | 10 KP | 11G | C. Rapo, D. N. Bresch, N. Gruber | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kurzbeschreibung | Working with real-world case studies, the Climate Innovation programme empowers climate leaders with the necessary skills and knowledge to support and lead the transition towards net zero emissions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lernziel | Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change requires fast and deeply transformative changes of our socio-economic-environmental systems towards net zero emissions. The goal of the Climate Innovation programme is to equip future climate leaders with the adequate skills and knowledge to 1) lead this transition, 2) navigate uncertainty and complexity, and 3) develop impactful solutions in interdisciplinary teams. A collective intelligence will be created around three pillars of this programme, namely system knowledge, transformational learning experience, and network activation, with an emphasis on dialogue and exchange. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Voraussetzungen / Besonderes | Master's degree acknowledged by ETH or equivalent educational qualifications, preferably in science or humanities, with a background in natural sciences, engineering, architecture or business. The Climate Innovation programme is aimed at professionals (3 years +) from business, industry, the public sector and non-governmental organisations who deal with complex problems related to climate change. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kompetenzen |
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